Ukraine agrees to preliminary agreement to provide US with 50% of critical mineral revenue

Ukraine reached a framework agreement with the US last week in which it will contribute 50% of all revenues derived from its natural resources to a Reconstruction Investment Fund shared with the US.

The US is seeking compensation for the money it has given Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of the country in February 2022, in return for the supply of capital for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

On February 26 a third draft of the proposed mineral resources agreement was submitted for review, though Ukraine’s president said it did not contain adequate security guarantees and Ukraine’s prime minister Denis Shmyhal described the agreement as preliminary. The Trump Administration has dropped its initial demand for $500 billion in potential revenue from Ukraine’s natural resources. The natural resources included in the deal include deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, as well as infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets, such as liquified natural gas terminals and port infrastructure.

The text of the proposed agreement (published by the Kyiv Independent news source on February 26) states that contributions made to the fund will be reinvested “at least annually in Ukraine to promote the safety, security and prosperity of Ukraine”, which is to be further defined. Volodymyr Zelensky is due to visit the White House on Friday this week to sign the agreement.

The preliminary deal is also understood to give the US direct access to Ukraine’s deposits of minerals, though the preliminary text does not specify this. The text of the agreement says that “[m]ore detailed terms pertaining to the Fund’s governance and operation will be set forth in a subsequent agreement” to be negotiated following the conclusion of the initial Bilateral Agreement. It is not clear whether the agreement gives the US preferential guarantees for critical mineral supply above contending markets, including Europe.

Some of Ukraine’s mineral deposits lie in territory in the east of the country that Russia now partly controls, notably titanium and zirconium.

Battery materials supply
Ukraine’s source of critical minerals, including its substantial global supply of graphite, are integral to the lithium batteries used in electric vehicles. In 2021, Ukraine exported more than 17,000 tons of graphite to world markets, making it the sixth largest producer in the world, according to UkraineInvest, which added that demand for battery materials will increase significantly in coming years in part because of the rise in electric mobility.

Among its natural resources, Ukraine’s graphite supply will be important to the US since China tightened export control in the face of fluctuating prices in 2022 and 2023. China began to impose restrictions on the export of dual-use graphite items from December 3, 2024 and predicted that China’s graphite export volume and export value in 2025 will drop significantly compared to 2023. Current prices are estimated to be between $400-$500 per ton but there is fluctuation according to spot deals.

European battery producers are already trying to bring supply of minerals closer from China, to increase the stability of supply chains.

In January Trump’s policy reversal on EV sales targets in the country suggested that mineral sourcing for the battery supply chain was not the priority it had been before his inauguration. However, any supply agreement with Ukraine could point to more realistic long-term supply for the future of battery EV production in the US given its trade dispute with China and the slower-than-expected adoption rate, which is to some extent arresting EV production targets, and not just in the US.