The global shift to electric vehicles is entering a more
complicated phase, with EV demand and production misaligning. EV adoption is
progressing more slowly and unevenly than expected, prompting a renewed focus
on hybrids and a more selective approach to battery investment. For automotive
logistics, this means a rethinking of supply chains and markets, with a
structural shift towards multi-powertrain supply chains, meaning more fragmented
flows, less predictable volumes and increasing pressure on logistics providers
to deliver flexible, regionally aligned operations.
Stellantis reset highlights cost of overestimating EV
transition
In the case of Stellantis, the OEM acknowledged it
overestimated the pace of EV adoption, particularly in the US. In its recently
released second half results for 2025, the carmaker said it was resetting its
EV strategy to continue at a pace “governed by demand rather than command”.
“The charges largely reflect the cost of overestimating the pace of the energy transition that distances us from many car buyers’ real-world needs, means and desires.”
Antonio Filosa, CEO, Stellantis
Stellantis suffered charges of approximately €22.2 billion ($25.5
bn), primarily due to overestimating EV uptake. The charges include write-offs
related to cancelled products of €2.9bn and impairment of platforms of €6bn, mostly
due to significantly reduced volume and profitability expectations, as well as €2.1bn
related to the resizing of the EV supply chain, with €0.7bn of that in cash
payments over the next four years related to steps of rationalising battery
manufacturing capacity.
Its CEO Antonio Filosa said: “The charges largely reflect
the cost of overestimating the pace of the energy transition that distances us
from many car buyers’ real-world needs, means and desires. They also reflect
the impact of previous poor operational execution, the effects of which are
being progressively addressed by our new team.”
Reflecting the uneven nature of EV demand across regions,
price point and infrastructure, the OEM said it has made decisive
organisational changes including the “re-empowerment of regional teams”, so
that they can make decisions based on the direct knowledge of the preferences
of the customers they serve.
The OEM’s reset in light of the uneven demand includes
reduced expectations for BEV volumes, a reconsideration or exit from some battery
investments and joint ventures, and a focus on cost-effective battery chemistries
such as LFP and flexible sourcing. Batteries remain critical, but investment is
becoming more selective and ROI-driven, with localisation and partnerships
becoming increasingly important.
North American OEMs pivot to hybrids amid policy and
demand shifts
Stellantis is not the only carmaker to consider an EV reset.
In fact, the other two OEMs making up the ‘Big Three’ have made similar strategic
moves. Ford
has pivoted away from aggressive EV expansion, redirecting investment into
hybrids and lower-cost EV platforms. The OEM scrapped its best-selling electric
pickup trucks, the F-150 Lightning, saying the business case “eroded” as a
result of lower-than-expected demand, high costs and regulatory changes.
Meanwhile, GM
has reduced EV production capacity and reallocated resources back to ICE
vehicles after taking a $6bn earnings hit, due in part to the “termination
of certain consumer tax incentives and the reduction in the stringency of
emissions regulations”, which it said caused slower industry-wide consumer
demand for EVs in North America.
The termination of consumer incentives came at the beginning
of 2025, in the first week of US president Donald Trump’s return to the Oval
Office. The Trump administration revoked
the Biden administration’s 2030 EV sales target and paused
funding from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which was introduced in
2022 to boost incentives for EV adoption. Then in September 2025, the US Senate
passed the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’, which saw the end
of consumer EV tax credits.
Japanese carmakers double down on hybrids as EV plans
stall
Beyond the US, Japanese OEMs have also signalled a strong
shift towards hybrids. Honda announced last week that it has cancelled the
development of three EV models that had been planned for production in North
America, a decision it made “as part of the reassessment of the company’s
automobile electrification strategy due to various factors including recent
changes in the business environment”.
“Honda automobile business has fallen into an extremely challenging earnings situation due to [... ] its inability to respond flexibly to these changes in the business environment, compounded by a decline in the profitability of gasoline and hybrid models due to the impact of newly imposed tariffs.”
Honda
As a result, Honda said it expects to record losses for the
fiscal year ending March 2026, including operational expenses of 820 billion
yen to 1.12 trillion yen ($5.2bn to $7.5bn) and special losses of 340bn to 570bn
yen. In an announcement, Honda set it had previously undertaken a major strategic
shift towards EVs “based on the belief that EVs will be the optimal solution to
realise carbon neutrality”, but said the profitability of the company is declining
“due primarily to the unfavourable impact of changes in US tariff policies on
the gasoline and hybrid vehicle business and a decline in the competitiveness
of Honda products in Asia due to the impact of the allocation of more resources
to EV development”.
Honda added that in China, customer demand leans more towards
software-based features that will continually advance, rather than hardware
features such as fuel efficiency.
The statement added: “Honda automobile business has fallen
into an extremely challenging earnings situation due to various factors,
including its inability to respond flexibly to these changes in the business
environment, compounded by a decline in the profitability of gasoline and
hybrid models due to the impact of newly imposed tariffs.”
Toyota has also cut planned EV production volumes and
delayed battery factory investment, continuing its long-standing multi-pathway
strategy of hybrid first.
Similarly, Subaru has delayed EV programmes and is prioritising
hybrids amid slow demand, reinforcing the regional trend.
Europe recalibrates EV timelines rather than reversing
course
In Europe, carmakers are adjusting their electrification
timelines, rather than completely abandoning electrification, as demand is slower than expected but still growing. With overcapacity in battery supply due to over-optimistic forecasts, demand variability disrupting investment plans, and competition from China, there is a structural mismatch in the continent between supply and demand.
Stellantis, Ford, GM, Honda and other OEMs are resetting electrification plans and battery investments in the region as a result, impacting automotive logistics. Volvo Cars has paused certain EV plans, including ending the
US sale of its EX30 after 2026, due to cost and demand pressures, but it is
still targeting high electrification in the long term, aiming to have 90-100%
of its global sales coming from EVs and hybrids by 2030.
VW Group is also reassessing its EV strategy driven by market
demand and cost pressures, but is still seeing value in electric models. The
carmaker recently delivered its first vehicle off the production line through
its partnership with Chinese EV maker XPeng as part of its “In China, for
China” strategy, and in a financial statement earlier this month, VW Group
reaffirmed its plans to launch affordable electric mobility with premium
technology in 2026.
Recently ALSC Europe 2026, Matthias Braun, senior vice-president of logistics at PowerCo, and Aleksej Kruekov, general manager of overseas service for EMEA at CATL, argued that a transition to electrification will be a long-term industrial transformation, rather than the sprint that the market previously thought. They highlighted that overcapacity and cost pressure, combined with higher levels of supply chain complexity and less ingrained partnerships are making the transition more difficult, but pointed to opportunities in battery energy storage systems (BESS) and aftermarket as major growth areas.
Multi-powertrain supply chains increase logistics
complexity
The recalibration underway across global OEMs signals a
structural shift in EV logistics. For automotive logistics providers, the move
towards multi-powertrain portfolios will increase network complexity, fragment
volumes and challenge traditional planning models built around scale and
predictability.
Battery flows will become more regionalised and selective,
while finished vehicle logistics will need to accommodate more volatile demand
signals across markets with diverging regulatory and consumer dynamics.
At the same time, the renewed emphasis on hybrids extends
the lifecycle of existing supply chains, delaying full electrification but
increasing operational overlap.
In this environment, competitive advantage will hinge on
flexibility, the ability to dynamically rebalance capacity, integrate new
sourcing patterns and respond to shorter planning horizons. The EV slowdown may
have tempered timelines, but it has accelerated the need for more agile,
data-driven and regionally responsive automotive logistics networks.