Aluminium supplier Novelis expects to restart hot mill in summer 2026 after fires caused disruption in 2025

The initial fire broke out on September 16, 2025, requiring major reconstruction. Then just two weeks after Novelis announced “substantial progress in the recovery and rebuilding of the Oswego plant’s hot mill” and confidence in restarting the hot mill before the end of the year, a second significant fire started on November 20 which meant that the hot mill has been unable to restart as yet in 2026.

Now, Novelis has provided greater clarity about the hot mill’s much-anticipated restart, claiming that while there is “still much work ahead in the site restoration process”, it expects to restart the Oswego hot mill late in the second quarter of this calendar year, followed by a ramp-up period.

“We are aggressively leveraging our global footprint and third-party sources to serve our customers while we simultaneously restore the Oswego plant to full operation,” said Steve Fisher, president and CEO of Novelis. “Based on work to-date, we expect to restart the Oswego hot mill late in the second quarter of calendar 2026.”

Novelis is still conducting analysis as to what caused the fire in September, but currently believes several factors could have contributed to its outbreak, such as the composition and characteristics of the coil, as well as lubricants in the mill and surrounding structure. As for the fire in November, the cause is still under investigation.

OEM impact

After the fire in November, Novelis and one of its biggest automotive customers, Ford, issued a joint statement that outlined that finished material was still being shipped from the facility to Ford and that Novelis would “continue to leverage alternate sources, including its global network of plants and industry peers, to mitigate impact” – something it still emphasises it is doing as of February 2026.

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Ford’s production strategy shifted significantly at the end of last year: first announcing plans to increase production of its F-150 and F-Series Super Duty models by more than 50,000 units in 2026 to recover losses from the fire and meet customer demand; then making the decision to end production of the aluminium-intensive F-150 Lightning electric truck.

The F-150 Lightning would be replaced by an extended range EV model as part of Ford’s expansion of its powertrain mix and broader shift towards “higher-return opportunities". Employees working on the F-150 Lightning had already been redeployed to Ford’s Dearborn Truck Plant to support a third crew for F-150 ICE and hybrid truck production as a result of the Novelis fires.

During a February 10 earnings call, Ford president and CEO Jim Farley alluded to a “$2 billion headwind for Novelis fires”, also noting a net tariff impact of $2 billion. On the bottom line, Ford generated $6.8 billion of adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for the full year of 2025.

Sherry House, Ford’s chief financial officer, shared an optimistic view for the year ahead. “We expect year-over-year improvement of about $1 billion, which is back half weighted,” she said. “This includes $1.5 billion to $2 billion of temporary costs, including tariffs, to ensure continuity in aluminium supply. These costs are not expected to be repeated in 2027.”

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House elaborated: “There will be tariffs and premium freight associated with that supply continuity of aluminium until we can get the Novelis hot mill back up and running sometime between May and September.”

In the February earnings call, House confirmed a production loss of 100,000 units over the course of 2025, and asserted that Ford remains committed to plans to increase production by 50,000-60,000 units in 2026 to counter this.

A 2024 SEC filing from Novelis listed its major customers in the automotive sector as: Ford Motor Company; General Motors; Honda Motor Company; Hyundai Motor Corporation; Jaguar Land Rover; NIO; Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance; Rivian; Stellantis; Toyota Motor Corporation; Volkswagen Group; and Volvo Cars.

However, with the exception of Ford, no other OEM has publicly reported specific financial losses from the Oswego fires.