‘Maximum disruption’ in Strait of Hormuz as 16 vessels are hit during US-Israel war on Iran
There is potential for “maximum disruption” to logistics flows in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby ports as a total of 16 vessels have been attacked during the ongoing conflict between the US and Israel with Iran, according to analysts.
Since 1 March, a total of 16 vessels have been hit while passing through the Strait of Hormuz and at anchorage following coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, threatening global automotive supply chains. In a Lloyd’s List Intelligence briefing today, its analysts said “maximum disruption” is expected in the region, with anchorages becoming “increasingly dangerous” places. Despite the daily attacks, Middle Eastern ports have displayed resilience in continuing supply chain flows.
The implications could be devastating to automotive supply chains, with days of delays having the potential to cause weeks of disruption to automotive logistics and deliveries of vehicles.
“Traffic is still moving, it’s not much, but it’s not a full closure,” said Bridget Diakun, senior risk and compliance analyst, Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Since the beginning of March, 77 vessels have transited the strait, compared to 1,229 vessels in the same period last year. “Broadly speaking, it’s bulk carriers, tankers and container ships that are passing through,” she said.
Due to this reduction in flows, a lot of container vessels are rerouting to avoid the disruption. Neil Dekker, senior analyst, Infospectrum said: “There's going to be a lot of port congestion happening now and further down the line. There is already port congestion in Singapore, Colombo [Sri Lanka], Mundra [India], where services that are in situ when the conflict first began cargo might be being offloaded there.”
For container shipping, more than 100 ships have been trapped while Gulf bookings are suspended. Cape diversions are pushing transit times to up to 49 days, with cargo being diverted instead to Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Sohar, Salalah, Jeddah and King Abdullah ports. There has also been a rapid rollout of landbridge corridors across Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman.
“So, on top of normal global services, you've all of a sudden got any number of carriers and services saying to the ports, ‘we need to put our service in here, can we have a berthing window?’” he added. “There will be huge issues getting berthing windows, with vessels probably having to anchor outside [the ports].”
He said that a lot of the major shipping lines will already have agreements to call at ports like Salalah in Oman, but the pressure on capacity at these ports will be mounting with an increase in demand. “Space is very much filling up on the quayside, so carriers are moving cargo very quickly through the port. Cargo will only be discharged onto the quays for maybe one or two days and then that will be evacuated out of the port confines to container freight stations elsewhere.”
This could spell massive disruption for the automotive supply chain. With increased competition and demand on berthing spaces, capacity will be squeezed and could likely drive rates up. On top of this, cargo being evacuated from ports and moved elsewhere to container freight stations will mean delays in deliveries to factories and thereby to customers.
During the recent Red Sea crisis, delays of two weeks were seen for some OEMs as a knock-on result. In finished vehicle logistics, the crisis had far-spanning impacts reaching European ports, which handled hundreds of thousands fewer finished vehicles because of the disruption.
Insurance costs for shippers and logistics service providers are also likely to see an increase.
Compounding on this is the fact that the strait is primarily used for the transport of oil. With potential oil shortages because of the disruption, LSPs and OEMs will see fuel costs go up, but the vessels themselves could be in danger of running out of the fuel needed for these flows, according to Dekker.
“The lines themselves have got issues in terms of getting fuel for all of these services,” he said. “Maersk I know have contingency plans to load extra fuel at US and European ports, taking that fuel back to Asia and then doing ship-to-ship transfers to vessels there. All in all, it’s a huge uproar for all of the lines and managing all of this on a day-to-day basis.”
