Trump claims Strait of Hormuz will reopen as US-Iran deal reached, shippers and insurers remain cautious

In a statement on June 15, Pakistan's prime minister Shehbaz Sharif released an official statement confirming the agreement of a deal between the two countries, which have been at war since the US and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran on February 28.

"Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the peace deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been reached," Sharif stated, noting that an official signing ceremony will take place on June 19 in Switzerland.

In his own statement on social media, Trump confirmed that he had authorised "the immediate removal of the United States naval blockade" and said the deal would bring about "the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz". He later reiterated this to the press, saying: "We're going to have the Strait of Hormuz fully open by Friday."

The terms of the deal have not yet been made public, but are expected to be released on Friday at the official signing ceremony in Geneva. As such, it is not yet clear what role, if any, Iran will play in the removal of mines from the Strait of Hormuz.

Read more: Maersk-operated ro-ro vessel transits Strait of Hormuz under US military guard

The Maersk-operated vehicle carrier, Alliance Fairfax, exited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday under US military guard. This news comes as more details have emerged regarding the impact of disruption on automotive supply chains.

Mine removal likely to delay return to normality

A US-Iran deal does not mean an immediate return to normality in the Strait of Hormuz. Removing the mines could take weeks, and shippers will need concrete assurances that the strait can be crossed safely before normal volumes resume. 

"We recognise ⁠that there are signs of movement toward a ceasefire. However, operations will not be resumed until safety has been sufficiently confirmed," Japanese shipping line Mitsui O.S.K. Lines said in a statement to Reuters. 

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines CEO Jotaro Tamura acknowledged that this is not the first time it has appeared a resolution might be in sight, after a ceasefire in April failed to bring the the "complete, immediate and safe" opening of the Strait of Hormuz that Trump promised. "Given the experiences in the last couple of months, I think it’s reasonable to assume that it may take at least a couple of weeks or if not a month," Tamura said.

A spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd told Automotive Logistics that it is preparing its vessels for transit through the Strait of Hormuz but will only proceed when it is safe to do so. "Final transit dates remain dependent on the details and implementation of the agreement between the US and Iran and our continuous assessment of the security situation," the spokesperson added.

The matter of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is one of many questions that are yet to be decisively answered as shippers look towards what might be the end of this year's most significant supply chain crisis.

The future of tolls and fees in the Strait of Hormuz

Another source of uncertainty is the matter of tolls in the long-term future of the Strait of Hormuz. While Trump and other US officials have repeatedly asserted that the US expects Iran not to charge tolls on vessels navigating the strait, Iran's position on this seems less clear. Before the agreement, Iran's ambassador to Moscow indicated that fees to Iran and Oman would be charged because they "provide certain services related to this strait".

This position was later confirmed by Esmaeil Baghaei, a spokesperson for the Iranian foreign ministry, who said: "We are not seeking to levy transit tolls; however, fees will be charged in exchange for the services that are provided."

While it is understood that the no tolls will be charged during the 60-day negotiation period, whether or not tolls – or "fees" – will be charged following this ceasefire is yet to be confirmed.

Oil prices drop following news of a deal

Crude oil prices have dropped to a three-month low of $76 per barrel since the announcement of a US-Iran preliminary peace agreement.

The news has led to more optimistic forecasts, with investment bank Citi cutting its Brent crude oil forecasts to $75 for Q3 2026 and $70 for Q4.

Of course, the volatility of oil prices remains closely tied to the development of the situation in the Middle East, so the formal signing of the agreement on Friday and its subsequent implementation will be closely watched from this perspective.

For logistics providers in the automotive sector, lower oil prices could help ease some of the cost pressures that have emerged as a result of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

While fuel is only one component of ocean freight rates, sustained stability in energy markets would reduce pressure on vessel operating costs and could support a gradual normalisation of transport pricing across both finished vehicle and inbound supply chains.

Automotive Logistics will continue to bring you coverage as the situation unfolds.