US tariffs drive 12% drop in Mexico vehicle exports as OEM strategies diverge

Finished vehicle exports from Mexico have dropped by 12% due to the US tariffs, according to the latest report by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).   

From January to September, 277,369 finished vehicles were exported from Mexico, down 11.85% year-on-year, representing the sharpest drop since December 2025, while vehicle production also decreased by 15% to 301,803.  

A primary reason for the drop in exports is due to US president Donald Trump implementing a 25% tariff on vehicle imports from Mexico, with US-sourced parts helping to bring the tariff down to 10-12%. 

However, the drop in exports was partially offset by domestic sales, which increased 8% year-on-year. 

Mexico’s domestic sales rise 

While domestic sales rose moderately, most of the major carmakers with North American facilities experienced a flat rate of sales. GM, Nissan and VW Group had minuscule increases in domestic sales from January to September 2026 compared to the same time period in 2025. GM’s domestic sales rose from 142,698 to 146,650 (up 2.8%), Nissan’s from 196,440 to 197,080 (up 0.3%), and VW’s from 97,970 to 100,329 (up 2.4%).  

In comparison, the Chinese OEMs present in Mexico experienced significant increases year-on-year. Geely saw its domestic sales almost triple, from 12,768 last year to 35,912 this year, up 181.3%. Changan increased its sales by 23.9%, from 13,067 to 16,184. And while it has a much smaller percentage of the market, Chery-owned Jetour Soueast increased sales almost fourfold, from 1,196 to 4,727.  

Stellantis increases Mexico production and exports 

In terms of production from January to September this year, Mercedes and Nissan produced less than 2025, while Stellantis and VW increased their output. Merecedes-Benz production dropped by almost half (49.3%), from 43,482 units produced last year to 22,060, while Nissan dropped 25.2% from 514,813 to 385,038. Meanwhile, Stellantis increased production by 18.9%, rising from 290,685 units to 345,522, and VW increased 14.6% from 250,124 to 286,668. 

A similar story was seen in exports from Mexico, with Mercedes, Nissan and Mazda all decreasing exports, while Stellantis increased its exports. Mercedes-Benz exports dropped 41.6% from 40,112 to 23,437, Nissan’s dropped 29.5% from 338,428 to 238,470, and Mazda’s exports dropped 12.4% from 75,371 to 66,059. Stellantis increased exports by 30.2%, from 243,120 to 316,533 in the first three quarters of the year. 

A potential reason for Stellantis being an outlier is its model launches. Stellantis began production of the new Jeep Cherokee in Toluca in December last year, with US dealer deliveries accelerating from March 2026.  

Stellantis adds models to Mexico production as part of Dare Forward plan

The Jeep Recon started production in Stellantis' Toluca plant in Mexico this year.

The OEM also restarted production of the Ram 1500 in Saltillo, with the first vehicle leaving the plant in February, although this model was made for the Mexican market.  

For Mercedes-Benz, capacity reduction and changes in its product portfolio help explain some of the decline in production and exports. In February, Mercedes confirmed that assembly at the COMPAS plant in Aguascalientes would end during 2026, presenting this within plans to make manufacturing more efficient and reduce global capacity to around 2.2 million vehicles by 2028. The carmaker did not produce or export any vehicles in September, which is the first time that has happened in eight years. 

Nissan stated in the past that tariffs would mean a reduction in Mexico production and exports. In April, Nissan Mexico’s president, Rodrigo Centeno, said tariffs had forced the company to reduce exports to the US, warning that the falling volume could require the removal of at least one production shift in Aguascalientes.  

But Mazda has been the clearest in its correlation between the implementation of US tariffs and a reduction in exports. Back in November, Mazda said it had deliberately reduced production and shipments of Mexican-built models because it anticipated weaker demand following tariff-related price increases, specifically identifying reduced CX-30 volumes as a response to tariffs. In May this year, within its financial results, the carmaker said it continues to carefully manage US sales volumes of the Mexican-built CX-30 and Mazda3 because of US–Mexico tariffs.