US agrees two-week ceasefire with Iran but normal operations not expected to resume in Strait of Hormuz for several weeks

The Strait of Hormuz has been a focal point of the US and Israel's war on Iran, with normal traffic unable to pass through the strait due to Iranian attacks on vessels. With the ceasefire dependant on – as Trump has outlined on social media – the "complete, immediate and safe" opening of the Strait of Hormuz, there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel from a logistics perspective.

However, this relies on a number of factors, including that the terms of the ceasefire are adhered to, that an agreement can be reached before the end of the two-week period, and that shippers can begin to plan long-term with certainty that the strait will remain safe to sail through. A full restoration of pre-war traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will undoubtedly take time, with automotive supply chains likely to continue to feel the impact in the interim.

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Shippers expect disruption to continue for the time being

Early reaction to the news of a ceasefire came from Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of global shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd, who told customers on a call that despite the ceasefire, disruption will continue to impact supply chain operations in the near future. "Even if a ceasefire has now been agreed overnight, I would say that it's fair to say that the conflict in the Middle East is still severely disrupting shipping, but also supply chains," he said.

Jansen noted that Hapag-Lloyd will incur an estimated $50-60 million in additional costs each week as a result of the conflict and acknowledged that some of these costs will need to be passed on to customers. He outlined that approximately 1,000 merchant ships remain stuck in the Persian Gulf, including six Hapag-Lloyd container vessels.

Another major player in international logistics, Maersk, told Reuters on April 8 that it would be taking "a cautious approach" to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and would not make any immediate changes to specific services.

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"The ceasefire may create transit opportunities, but it does not yet provide full maritime certainty and we need to understand all potential conditions attached," a Maersk spokesperson said. "Any decision to transit the Strait of Hormuz will ⁠be based on continuous risk assessments, close monitoring of the security situation, and available guidance from relevant authorities and partners."

The reality of the situation is that while the US-Iran ceasefire agreement does mark the "opening" of the Strait of Hormuz, resuming pre-war levels of traffic through the strait will likely take weeks – 6-8 weeks according to Hapag-Lloyd.

According to reports, Iran is demanding that shipping companies pay tolling fees for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and each vessel is set to be checked, making this process even slower.

“Iran needs to monitor what goes in and out of the strait to ensure these two weeks aren’t used for transferring weapons,” Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union told the Financial Times. “Everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush.”

How will automotive supply chains be affected?

There are number of ways in which disruption in the Middle East and the latest developments will impact automotive supply chains around the world. As Hapag-Lloyd's Jansen alluded to, the possibility for increased logistics costs to be passed on to customers while disruption continues has the potential to raise costs for OEMs and tier suppliers. We have already seen surcharges introduced by the likes of CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd at the beginning of the war, but as disruption continues additional or increased surcharges may be seen.

These potential additional logistics costs would compound cost-related concerns for automotive companies, which will also be grappling with higher energy costs. Brent crude oil prices dropped overnight from around $109 per barrel to $92 per barrel, but this is still significantly higher than the $70 per barrel prices experienced before the war broke out.

Several energy facilities have been damaged as a result of the conflict, including attacks on two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities, causing damage that QatarEnergy's CEO and state minister for energy affairs, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, said would impact LNG contracts with countries in Europe and Asia for the next five years.

Most recently, just before the ceasefire was agreed, Iran confirmed it had launched targeted attacks on Saudi Arabia's Jubail petrochemical complex in response to attacks on its own petrochemical plants in Asaluyeh.

Any damage threatening the global supply of petrochemicals could impact tier suppliers, with petrochemicals such as naphtha, ethylene and methanol used in the production of plastics, composites and rubber for vehicle components. With analysts claiming that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would've disrupted the flow of almost 1.2 million barrels per day of naphtha exports, tightening feedstock availability has caused prices of plastics to jump around 37% since the outbreak of the war.

With logistics, energy and material costs inflated, it's clear that – at least for now – disruption to trade flows in the Middle East will continue to affect OEMs, tier suppliers and logistics service providers.