US reintroduces Iran blockade as conflict resumes in Strait of Hormuz and Iran threatens Red Sea access

The situation in the Middle East continues to disrupt global supply chains, with Donald Trump declaring his view that the US-Iran MoU is "over" less than a month after it was signed and a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was agreed.

When asked by a reporter if the ceasefire between the US and Iran had come to an end, he said: "It's over. I don't want to deal with them any more."

"They're scum; they're sick people; they're led by sick people," he continued. "They're vicious, violent people."

Trump's comments came during a NATO summit on July 8, just over three weeks after it was announced that a peace deal between the two countries had been reached. Since then, the ceasefire has collapsed, attacks have resumed and a long-term resolution to the conflict appears unlikely in the immediate future.

Trump backs down on shipping fee proposal

On July 13, Trump shared a statement on social media claiming that the Strait of Hormuz "is open and will remain open, with or without Iran."

He confirmed that the US Navy would be reinstating its blockade of Iran's ports, restricting Iranian vessels and their customers from entering or leaving Iranian ports

Claiming that the US would take on a role as "the guardian of the Hormuz strait", Trump proposed the introduction of a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the strait. He described this fee as reimbursement for "any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the world".

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However, the very next day Trump walked back plans for such a toll. "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with trade and investment deals that the various Gulf states will be making into the United States," he said in another social media statement.

When questioned on the reversal of his decision at a bilateral White House meeting, Trump stated that he preferred the idea of investment rather than a toll for shipments. Despite proposing the "reimbursement fee" just a day prior, Trump claimed that he does not believe any nation should be able to impose such a toll.

"I don't think anybody should be able to charge a fee for the strait or for any other strait relationship in terms of other sections of the world," he said. "I don't think anybody should really be in that position."

When the US-Iran peace deal was agreed in June, tolls remained an area of uncertainty. Although it was understood that no tolls would be charged during the deal's 60-day negotiation period, a spokesperson for the Iranian foreign ministry has said that in the longer term, it would look to charge fees "in exchange for the services that are provided."

Iran's Red Sea gateway threat

According to a July 16 Reuters report, Iran has asked Yemen's Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea. The news agency's sources claim that Iran's Houthi allies have deployed missiles and drones near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, awaiting orders to begin attacks on vessels.

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The simultaneous closure of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb gateway would severely restrict access for maritime vessels to and from the Gulf nations, exacerbating the global energy crisis and further disrupting global supply chains.

As the past few months have shown, geopolitical instability is one of the greatest challenges that supply chains are facing in 2026. At ALSC Europe, Carlos Vazquez, vice president of global purchasing and supply chain at Stellantis, highlighted how since the Covid-19 pandemic, disruption and volatility have resulted in resilience moving from "a PowerPoint in a board meeting to daily meetings and activity".

He advocated for a continuous improvement approach pursuing antifragility by repeating a cycle of failure, growth and learning – becoming more and more resilient with each turn of the cycle.

With no clear end to this conflict in sight, this constant focus on resilience and operational flexibility will be key for all stakeholders in the automotive supply chain as they navigate unpredictable and ever-changing geopolitical developments.

The conflict's impact on fuel costs for freight operators

Energy and fuel price fluctuations have been a consistent concern for the logistics industry since the conflict began at the end of February.

Although the price of Brent crude oil had begun to drop in June as negotiations continued and a peace deal offered hope for an end to military action, the ceasefire's collapse in early July caused another price surge.

Concerns over oil prices have been further compounded with this latest threat to the Bab el-Mandeb gateway, a critical chokepoint for oil supply.

"The ⁠potential threat of the Red Sea becoming another major supply disruption point is further complicating the global oil outlook," commented Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, noting that the "dual-risk scenario" is likely to keep oil prices high for the time being.

But what effect has this volatility had on key road, sea and air freight fuel prices?

Diesel and jet fuel prices have broadly followed the direction of Brent crude oil over recent months. Both increased through the spring before easing during May and June, then began to rise again in early July as tensions in the Middle East reignited concerns over global energy supplies. Diesel prices have risen more sharply than jet fuel in recent weeks, suggesting road freight operators may face greater fuel cost pressures than air freight operators if higher prices persist.

Maritime fuel has followed a slightly different path. Using the Singapore VLSFO benchmark, bunker fuel prices rose sharply through March before easing across much of the second quarter as oil prices softened. After dipping towards the end of June, prices turned upwards again in early July as renewed tensions in the Middle East pushed energy markets higher.

For automotive supply chains, the significance of increased fuel prices extends beyond transport costs alone. OEMs may need to focus on improving network efficiency through measures such as shipment consolidation, higher vehicle utilisation and tighter control of expedited freight. Logistics providers, meanwhile, are likely to continue optimising routes and using fuel surcharge mechanisms to manage volatility. Tier suppliers, many of which operate on narrower margins and depend more heavily on road transport, may be more exposed if diesel prices remain elevated.

As a result, resilience, flexibility and transport reliability are likely to remain higher priorities for automotive supply chain stakeholders than simply minimising fuel costs.